Table 2

Validation results for the InterVA model and PCVA against the HCOD in diagnosing the cause of death for the five most common causes of death among 145 adults

Causes of death

Sensitivity (%)

(95% CI)

PPV (%)

(95% CI)

Specificity (%)

(95% CI)

NPV (%)

(95% CI)


InterVA

HIV/AIDS-related death

70 (5-84)

61 (43-76)

87 (79-92)

91 (84-92)

Cardiovascular

52 (34-69)

57 (37-75)

88 (81-94)

86 (78-92)

Tuberculosis (pulmonary)

83 (36-100)

28 (10-54)

91 (85-95)

99 (96-100)

Meningitis

43 (10-82)

33 (8-70)

96 (91-99)

97 (93-99)

Diabetes

63 (25-92)

83 (36-100)

99 (96-100)

98 (94-100)

PCVA

HIV/AIDS-related death

88 (72-97)

80 (64-92)

94 (88-98)

96 (91-99)

Cardiovascular

70 (51-84)

82 (63-94)

96 (90-99)

91 (85-95)

Tuberculosis (pulmonary)

100 (54-100)

55 (23-83)

96 (92-99)

100 (97-100)

Meningitis

43 (10-82)

60 (15-95)

99 (95-100)

97 (93-99)

Diabetes

100 (63-100)

57 (29-82)

96 (91-99)

100 (97-100)


PCVA: physician-certified verbal autopsy; InterVA model: probabilistic model; NPV: negative predictive value; PPV: positive predictive value; CI: confidence interval

PPV is the number of positives correctly diagnosed through the InterVA model/PCVA (true positives) divided by number of positives diagnosed in hospital (as the gold standard).

NPV is the number of negatives correctly diagnosed through the InterVA model/PCVA (true negatives) divided by number of negatives diagnosed in hospital (as the gold standard).

Bauni et al. Population Health Metrics 2011 9:49   doi:10.1186/1478-7954-9-49

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