Table 2 |
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|
Projections for Selected Years of Incident Cases in Thousands from the Adult Population with No Diabetes from the No-Intervention Model (Three-State Model) and the Preventive Intervention Model (Five-State Model) |
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|
Year |
Relative |
Relative |
No-Intervention |
Intervention |
Difference (Low, Middle) |
|
Risk r1 |
Risk r2 |
Incident Cases (Low, Middle) |
Incident Cases (Low, Middle) |
||
|
|
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|
2010 |
1.77 |
2.11 |
(2018.4, 2145.7) |
(1681.6, 1787.9) |
(336.8, 357.8) |
|
1.00 |
4.08 |
(2021.1, 2148.4) |
(1683.8, 1790.1) |
(337.3, 358.3) |
|
|
2015 |
1.77 |
2.11 |
(2095.4, 2468.1) |
(1773.2, 2093.2) |
(322.2, 374.9) |
|
1.00 |
4.08 |
(2106.8, 2481.9) |
(1782.7, 2104.9) |
(324.1, 377.0) |
|
|
2020 |
1.77 |
2.11 |
(2143.3, 2721.9) |
(1833.3, 2341.0) |
(310.0, 380.9) |
|
1.00 |
4.08 |
(2164.9, 2752.2) |
(1851.7, 2366.9) |
(313.2, 385.3) |
|
|
2025 |
1.77 |
2.11 |
(2176.1, 2933.5) |
(1875.8, 2551.9) |
(300.3, 381.6) |
|
1.00 |
4.08 |
(2208.9, 2984.9) |
(1904.1, 2596.6) |
(304.8, 388.3) |
|
|
2030 |
1.77 |
2.11 |
(2230.0, 3098.4) |
(1933.6, 2721.5) |
(296.4, 376.9) |
|
1.00 |
4.08 |
(2276.0, 3175.1) |
(1973.5, 2789.1) |
(302.5, 386.0) |
|
|
2035 |
1.77 |
2.11 |
(2300.8, 3225.0) |
(2004.4, 2855.9) |
(296.4, 369.1) |
|
1.00 |
4.08 |
(2361.4, 3329.7) |
(2057.3, 2949.2) |
(304.1, 380.5) |
|
|
2040 |
1.77 |
2.11 |
(2334.3, 3323.2) |
(2041.4, 2963.2) |
(292.9, 360.0) |
|
1.00 |
4.08 |
(2408.8, 3456.9) |
(2107.0, 3083.6) |
(301.8, 373.3) |
|
|
2045 |
1.77 |
2.11 |
(2341.5, 3401.4) |
(2054.0, 3050.5) |
(287.5, 350.9) |
|
1.00 |
4.08 |
(2428.3, 3562.9) |
(2130.6, 3197.3) |
(297.7, 365.6) |
|
|
2050 |
1.77 |
2.11 |
(2403.8, 3490.9) |
(2113.8, 3146.1) |
(290.0, 344.8) |
|
1.00 |
4.08 |
(2502.6, 3677.2) |
(2201.7, 3316.8) |
(302.9, 360.4) |
|
|
|
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|
Note: There are four scenarios included (1) low incidence projections and r1 = 1.77, r2 = 2.11, (2) low incidence projections and r1 = 1.00, r2 = 4.08, (3) middle incidence projections and r1 = 1.77, r2 = 2.11, (4) middle incidence projections and r1 = 1.00, r2 = 4.08. |
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|
Boyle et al. Population Health Metrics 2010 8:29 doi:10.1186/1478-7954-8-29 |
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