Table 2

Projections for Selected Years of Incident Cases in Thousands from the Adult Population with No Diabetes from the No-Intervention Model (Three-State Model) and the Preventive Intervention Model (Five-State Model)

Year

Relative

Relative

No-Intervention

Intervention

Difference (Low, Middle)

Risk r1

Risk r2

Incident Cases (Low, Middle)

Incident Cases (Low, Middle)


2010

1.77

2.11

(2018.4, 2145.7)

(1681.6, 1787.9)

(336.8, 357.8)

1.00

4.08

(2021.1, 2148.4)

(1683.8, 1790.1)

(337.3, 358.3)

2015

1.77

2.11

(2095.4, 2468.1)

(1773.2, 2093.2)

(322.2, 374.9)

1.00

4.08

(2106.8, 2481.9)

(1782.7, 2104.9)

(324.1, 377.0)

2020

1.77

2.11

(2143.3, 2721.9)

(1833.3, 2341.0)

(310.0, 380.9)

1.00

4.08

(2164.9, 2752.2)

(1851.7, 2366.9)

(313.2, 385.3)

2025

1.77

2.11

(2176.1, 2933.5)

(1875.8, 2551.9)

(300.3, 381.6)

1.00

4.08

(2208.9, 2984.9)

(1904.1, 2596.6)

(304.8, 388.3)

2030

1.77

2.11

(2230.0, 3098.4)

(1933.6, 2721.5)

(296.4, 376.9)

1.00

4.08

(2276.0, 3175.1)

(1973.5, 2789.1)

(302.5, 386.0)

2035

1.77

2.11

(2300.8, 3225.0)

(2004.4, 2855.9)

(296.4, 369.1)

1.00

4.08

(2361.4, 3329.7)

(2057.3, 2949.2)

(304.1, 380.5)

2040

1.77

2.11

(2334.3, 3323.2)

(2041.4, 2963.2)

(292.9, 360.0)

1.00

4.08

(2408.8, 3456.9)

(2107.0, 3083.6)

(301.8, 373.3)

2045

1.77

2.11

(2341.5, 3401.4)

(2054.0, 3050.5)

(287.5, 350.9)

1.00

4.08

(2428.3, 3562.9)

(2130.6, 3197.3)

(297.7, 365.6)

2050

1.77

2.11

(2403.8, 3490.9)

(2113.8, 3146.1)

(290.0, 344.8)

1.00

4.08

(2502.6, 3677.2)

(2201.7, 3316.8)

(302.9, 360.4)


Note: There are four scenarios included (1) low incidence projections and r1 = 1.77, r2 = 2.11, (2) low incidence projections and r1 = 1.00, r2 = 4.08, (3) middle incidence projections and r1 = 1.77, r2 = 2.11, (4) middle incidence projections and r1 = 1.00, r2 = 4.08.

Boyle et al. Population Health Metrics 2010 8:29   doi:10.1186/1478-7954-8-29

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