Table 1

Projections from the Three-State Model of Numbers of People in Millions with No Diabetes, Undiagnosed Diabetes, and Diagnosed Diabetes for Selected Years

Year

Relative Risk r1

Relative Risk r2

No Diabetes (Low, Middle)

Undiagnosed Diabetes (Low, Middle)

Diagnosed Diabetes (Low, Middle)

Total US Adult Population


2010

1.77

2.11

(191.4, 191.2)

(12.0, 11.5)

(20.3, 21.0)

223.7

1.00

4.08

(192.1, 191.9)

(12.1, 11.6)

(19.5, 20.2)

2015

1.77

2.11

(196.1, 194.6)

(13.1, 12.2)

(26.6, 29.1)

235.9

1.00

4.08

(198.1, 196.6)

(13.3, 12.4)

(24.4, 26.8)

2020

1.77

2.11

(200.7, 196.9)

(13.9, 12.7)

(32.9, 37.9)

247.5

1.00

4.08

(204.0, 200.3)

(14.3, 13.0)

(29.2, 34.1)

2025

1.77

2.11

(205.4, 198.5)

(14.4, 13.0)

(38.7, 47.0)

258.5

1.00

4.08

(210.2, 203.6)

(14.9, 13.5)

(33.4, 41.4)

2030

1.77

2.11

(209.5, 199.3)

(14.7, 13.1)

(43.7, 55.5)

267.9

1.00

4.08

(216.0, 206.2)

(15.4, 13.7)

(36.5, 48.0)

2035

1.77

2.11

(213.9, 200.1)

(15.0, 13.2)

(48.1, 63.6)

276.9

1.00

4.08

(222.1, 208.9)

(15.8, 14.0)

(39.1, 54.1)

2040

1.77

2.11

(218.3, 201.0)

(15.2, 13.3)

(52.0, 71.2)

285.5

1.00

4.08

(228.2, 211.6)

(16.2, 14.2)

(41.1, 59.7)

2045

1.77

2.11

(223.6, 202.7)

(15.5, 13.4)

(55.6, 78.6)

292.9

1.00

4.08

(235.1, 215.0)

(16.6, 14.4)

(43.1, 65.4)

2050

1.77

2.11

(230.6, 206.0)

(16.0, 13.7)

(59.7, 86.6)

306.3

1.00

4.08

(243.5, 219.7)

(17.2, 14.8)

(45.6, 71.8)


Note: There are four scenarios included (1) low incidence projections and r1 = 1.77, r2 = 2.11, (2) low incidence projections and r1 = 1.00, r2 = 4.08, (3) middle incidence projections and r1 = 1.77, r2 = 2.11, (4) middle incidence projections and r1 = 1.00, r2 = 4.08. Entries in the last column are the Census projections of the total US adult population.

Boyle et al. Population Health Metrics 2010 8:29   doi:10.1186/1478-7954-8-29

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