Figure 1.

Model natural history schematic. Each ellipse represents a state in the natural history model. HPV is stratified by type. Each month, a woman has a chance of transitioning from her current state along one of the arrows emanating from that state to another state or else staying in her current state. All women also have a chance of dying from all-cause mortality, and women with invasive cancer have an additional stage-specific chance of dying from their cancer.